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| Letting the dust settle |
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| Wednesday, 09 April 2008 | |
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In spite of the feverish efforts by the media to whip up enthusiasm for the local elections there was a return to high abstention figures, higher in the second round than in the first. More than a third of the electorate didn’t bother, the excitement of the presidentials having faded. What was striking was the number of towns and cities where the difference between winner and loser was minute, often in the 49% to 51% range, and the one who got 51% this time probably got 49% last time. In fact, the two main parties are very equally divided, the extremes pretty well squeezed out and it only takes a shudder of the pendulum for the majority to change. François Bayrou, leader of the middle-of-the-road MIDEM, was somewhat vexed by his failure to seize Pau mairie; he observed bitterly that the same electors who had turned down the PS only nine months before had now voted for them, even though the party had changed neither its leaders nor its programme. But his hope that his centrists would gradually enlarge the gap between the two main groups has not come to pass. Indeed, the MODEMs got pretty well smothered and, to rub salt in the wound, the ex-UDFs who once supported him have now formed their own group in alliance with the UMP. Too much minister But these were local elections and the popular, hard-working mayors got in, whatever their party. Although it is flattering for a small town to have a nationally known figure as its mayor, there is always the feeling of too much minister and not enough mayor. Xavier Darcos, Minister of Education, who lost Périgueux by 113 votes, was probably affected by this, whereas Martin Aubry in Lille and Alain Juppé in Bordeaux, cities where they spend all their energies, both sailed in. Jean-Claude Gaudin, who has been permanently based in Marseille for many years, narrowly managed to hang on to his seat while other long-established mayors got bounced due to the ‘it’s time for a change’ syndrome. In Nice, Christian Estrosi, secrétaire d’état for overseas territories, promised to surrender his government position if elected, and promptly did so. The most prominent member of government to lose was Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, standing in Paris’ 12th arrondissement. She had been rather parachuted in after spending so many years in the States. Also in Paris, Justice Minister Rachida Dati was elected while Rama Yade lost. And Sarkozy Junior, seemingly a promising young politician, is now a conseiller. Sarkozy himself largely kept out of the campaign. It was François Fillon who was most active and most solicited to support UMP candidates: typically when he visited the capital’s Salon d’Agriculture, he was up at dawn to watch the milking and had breakfast there before doing the traditional rounds of cow patting, pig stroking and sausage tasting. When he and his Welsh wife attended the France-Wales rugby match, she naturally had her night of triumph. Serious contender Ségolène Royal did not stand but played a dominant part, visiting many towns to support PS candidates. On the TV analysis programmes, she is always respected as a serious presidential contender while her ex-partner, PS party leader François Hollande, grinds his teeth as she speaks. She hopes to be elected in his place in the autumn. Her main rival will probably be Maire of Paris Bertrand Delanoë. Panicky rumours of a cabinet reshuffle were flying about in the face of the PS victory in these latest elections. Even senior ministers were looking uneasily over their shoulders but only minor changes have been made. Six new secrétaires d'état have been named, the previous ones being moved to other positions. Now everyone can get back to work. As always, the government is anxious to get on with the economy and the yawning deficits, which hold up the reform programmes. Skilled jobs aplenty Watching the news on French TV, one gets the impression of a never-ending list of factory closures, leading inevitably to higher unemployment. In fact, chômage has fallen steadily over the last year or so and is now down to 7.5%, below Germany or Spain, and 300,000 new jobs have been created. Much of this success can be traced back to Jean-Pierre Raffarin’s reforms when he was PM, to help the small and medium-sized firms (PMEs), and has been confirmed by the efforts of Fillon’s government. The problem in France is not the availability of jobs: there are thousands going begging. The Saint-Nazaire shipyards, which have managed to become one of the world’s top builders of luxury cruise liners – no small feat – have four or five of these monsters on order. They would take on 150 skilled welders tomorrow if only they could find them, plus hundreds more craftspeople. Airbus, with its huge new order for refuelling tankers for the US air force, is also searching desperately for top artisans. No, the problem is that a great number of the present unemployed are unemployable in modern industry: most of them lack the basic skills and the motivation to get down to the hard grind of getting properly qualified. |
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