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Friday, 21 November 2008 |
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The French Socialists know they will be led by a woman. They will not know until tonight which one. The result will be very close.
Of the three candidates in the first round Benoit Hamon has most cause to be satisfied. He has come from nowhere to achieve a respectable 22.83%. He has immediately thrown his weight behind Martine Aubry who despite the wobbly support of Bertrand Delanoë only managed 34.74%. Together they ought to have won in the second round. If every member who voted for Hamon votes for Aubry then she will win comfortably. Hamon of course has no reason to support the leading candidate Royal because she has already said she will work with him. If Aubry wins she will owe him her sucess. A Royal win will not improve his position as much.
His supporters in the first round are unlikely to follow him like sheep. Hamon is broadly Euro-sceptic.
Aubry, daughter of the famous EU President Jacques Delors is a classic EU supporter. On the face of it they both oppose an alliance with the centre that Royal favours but in reality members know that whoever would beat Sarkozy in 2012 will have to make some arrangement with François Bayrou and his supporters. There are indications that some federations voted on block to support Hamon for tactical reasons to maintain the suspense and sell their votes dearly in the second round. On top of all that there remains a reservoir of members who did not vote in the first round.
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